Monday, January 07, 2008

Iran-US Naval Standoff
Genuine threat? Or oil price manipulation?

It's widely broadcast that Iran's Revolutionary Guard speedboats and US Naval vessels had a real spitting contest today. In response to radio'ed threats and objects dropped in the US vessel's path, US sailors manned the guns, and the Iranians turned heel.

The usual western response happens.... tough warnings from the WH, Iranian Foreign Ministers saying it was
business as usual.

What had me scratching at my head was the "whys?" of it it all. And I believe that Steve Schippert at has the answer.

We at ThreatsWatch have dismissed the Iranian threat to choke oil shipments by blocking the Strait as well as its stated aims to stop its own exports. The Iranian ‘Oil Weapon’ remains not the act of cutting off their own economic life blood, but rather the results that such threats have on oil prices to their windfall benefit.

As with other Iranian threats and actions that have caused the world oil markets to nervously drive up the price of crude, this weekend’s action also comes as oil prices fell from a November 2007 average of $92.67 to just $88.21 for December.
[Source: OILNERGY: posted oil price (WTI)]

Yep. That sounds about right. It's again all about money, folks. Not an impending war. Just an effort to keep Iran's economy humming along. They are, afterall, quite dependent upon revenues representing around 80-90 percent of total their export earnings, and 40-50 percent of the government budget.

To further clarify a possible motive, the Iranian boats doing the threatening were those under control of Ahmadinejad's Revolutionary Guard, not the Iranian Navy. And the Iranian punk is under the gun for his economic policies that have resulted in a 19.1% increase in consumer prices for 2007.

So chill your nerves. Ignore the impending doom. And rest easy knowing the world still functions with money as it's guiding deity.... even in Ahmadinejad's Iran.

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